Risk Analysis of Conventional Long-term Schedule
The project aims to measure the impact of equipment uncertainty on the long-term schedule through risk analysis.
Title
Risk Analysis of a Large Copper Mining Complex under Joint Geological and Equipment Uncertainty
Short Description
Framework to integrate equipment production and capacities to risk analysis of mining complexes using equipment historical data.
Associated with
Master’s Candidate and Graduate Research Assistant — McGill University’s COSMO Stochastic Mine Planning Laboratory.
Project Description
Conventionally optimized production schedules of mining complexes do not account for the different sources of uncertainty.
The current work performs a risk analysis over such a production schedule incorporating the joint uncertainty in supply and equipment performance.
This quantification of risk due to geological uncertainty and variability is assessed in the study through the use of geological simulations, by which a series of orebody models are stochastically simulated and conditioned to the available copper grade.
Historical mining and processing production data provide the input for generating Monte Carlo simulations for equipment productions.
The current risk analysis is performed for a 10-year life of mine deterministically optimized production schedule of a large copper mining complex.
Such a mining complex comprises two deposits, two stockpiles, five crushers, three mills, two leach pads, a waste dump and several different mining equipment types and models.
The schedule’s response under the different joint uncertainty scenarios is measured, and the impact on metal production and cumulative discounted cash flows are compared to initial forecasts, assessing the risk of meeting these initial predictions.
Results show the financial impact of not accounting for geological or equipment uncertainty and substantial differences between the planned forecasts and the schedule’s responses.
Status
Completed between January 2020 and April 2020.
Publication
Work presented as part of McGill’s Mining and Materials Department’s MIMI 673 Mining Seminars on April 9th, 2020.
The written document can be found in the Publications section.